The latest forward-testing data is starting to tell a different story than the first three-week snapshot suggested.
The early closed trades weren’t great on their own. Most of the losers got stopped out quickly before any real momentum developed, and it was a choppy stretch across the broader market.
But the open portfolio is looking very different now. If all currently active trades were closed today, the forward-tested portfolio would roughly equal +13R in total profit across the testing period.
Several long positions have started to develop into strong runners:
- ZEC +2.0R open
- AAON +2.9R open
- TRS +1.7R open
- BTC +1.1R open
- DOGE +1.2R open
- UNI +1.1R open
- XMR +1.2R open
Trade management is doing what it’s supposed to. Partial profits are taken at the configured targets, stops are moving tighter as trades develop to reduce the risk and make room for future trades.
That’s the point of the design. The system doesn’t aim for a high win rate. It cuts losers fast, sit through weak periods, and stay in the game long enough to catch the moves that actually matter.
Market alignment is worth calling out too. The strongest open positions are mainly crypto longs: Bitcoin, Ethereum, ZEC, TON, SUI, UNI, DOGE, SHIB, but we did not miss on a few strong stock signals like AAON or TRS.
The weaker trades have also been instructive, leading to several adjustments in the system::
- Stock portfolio was refined based on recent earnings data
- Crypto tockens in scope were limited to the top 50 by market cap
- Equity klines provider was replaced for more consistent data
The next few weeks will show whether these crypto longs turn into the kind of trend expansion the system is built to capture.
Next steps:
- optimize stop loss placement for stocks to reduce the number of early losses